Key Challenges in the Post-Soviet Era:

30 Years On (Kazakhstan, Ukraine, etc.)

A Conversation with Ambassador George Krol and David Merkel

The Cold War and Soviet era seemingly ended in 1991 with the dissolution of the USSR, giving independence to 15 countries. The recent violence in Kazakhstan, continuing Ukraine crises, and Russian President Putin’s vision of an authoritarian regional order led by Russia highlight only some of the turmoil in the former Soviet Union.

Ambassador George Krol will discuss the implications of these events and trends for the countries of the region and their relations with the U.S. and Europe. He has over thirty years of professional diplomatic expertise in the region, including as U.S. Ambassador to Kazakhstan, Belarus and Uzbekistan.

David A. Merkel has decades of experience in the region, having served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs and Director for South and Central Asian Affairs at the National Security Council in the White House. He is a founding board member of Nazarbayev University in Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan.

REGISTER HERE

Registration

Free for PCFR Members

$10 for Non-members

Schedule

Thursday, January 27, 2022

12 pm MST | 2 pm EST

Venue

Zoom Meeting

The link for this webinar will be included in your registration confirmation email.

Speaker

George A. Krol

U.S. Ambassador, retired

Ambassador George Krol retired from the U.S. Foreign Service in November 2018, concluding a 36-year diplomatic career with his final assignment as U.S. Ambassador to Kazakhstan. He has spent the last 30 years dealing with and serving in states that emerged from the former Soviet Union such as Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. Krol also held ambassadorships to Uzbekistan (2011-2014) and Belarus (2003-2006,) and served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State responsible for Central Asia (2008-2010). Earlier in his career, Krol served as Minister Counselor for Political Affairs at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow (1999-2002,) Director of the Office of Russian Affairs (1997-99) and Special Assistant to the Ambassador-at- Large for the New Independent States (1995-97) at the State Department. As an officer serving in Leningrad/St Petersburg (1990-92) Krol reported from the Baltic republics and covered the collapse of the USSR there and in Northwest Russia. Krol has received numerous State Department awards, including the Secretary of State’s Distinguished Service Award as well as decorations from the governments of Lithuania, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan.

Ambassador Krol was born in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and grew up in Clifton, New Jersey. He is a graduate of Harvard University (A.B. 1978) and Oxford University (B.A., M.A. 1980.) He resides in Middletown, Rhode Island and currently teaches as an Adjunct Professor at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island. Krol lectures on foreign policy topics to local audiences and is also an Associate Fellow at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies where he gives talks, writes and participates in Davis Center activities.

David A. Merkel

Associate Fellow,

International Institute for Strategic Studies

David A. Merkel is the managing director of Summit International Advisors, LLC. His expertise includes United States foreign policy, the geopolitics of energy, the Belt and Road Initiative, Europe, Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia.

David A. Merkel has served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, Director for South and Central Asian Affairs at the National Security Council in the White House, Director for European and Eurasian Affairs at the National Security Council and Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department. He also served as international counsellor to the Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), senior professional staff on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and senior foreign and defense policy adviser to the leadership of the U.S. House of Representatives.

He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, International Institute for Strategic Studies and the Phoenix Committee on Foreign Relations.

Book for Discussion

Warrior Politics

by Robert D. Kaplan

Friday, January 28, 2022

7:30 - 9:00 am MST

Venue

Online Zoom Meeting

About the Book

"Sun-Tzu also suggested that with the battle won, the best leader persuades his followers that they did it themselves: one great lesson among many others in this gem of a book for present and future leaders." - Sidney Harman, Executive Chairman, Harman International Industries

"An intellectual tour de force expressing the enduring relevance of ancient principles of statecraft to modern circumstances in the most lucid and persuasive prose I've ever read." - Robert McFarlane, Former National Security Adviser

In Warrior Politics, the esteemed journalist and analyst Robert D. Kaplan explores the wisdom of the ages for answers for today’s leaders. While the modern world may seem more complex and dangerous than ever before, Kaplan writes from a deeper historical perspective to reveal how little things actually change. Indeed, as Kaplan shows us, we can look to history’s most influential thinkers, who would have understood and known how to navigate today’s dangerous political waters.

Drawing on the timeless work of Sun Tzu, Thucydides, Machiavelli, Hobbes, among others, Kaplan argues that in a world of unstable states and an uncertain future, it is increasingly imperative to wrest from the past what we need to arm ourselves for the road ahead. Wide-ranging and accessible, Warrior Politics is a bracing book with an increasingly important message that challenges readers to see the world as it is, not as they would like it to be.

Save the Dates

View Upcoming Reading Group Meetings Here

The Invention of Power: Popes, Kings, and the Birth of the West

Virtual Book Discussion with Author Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Following the success of his last book, The Dictator’s Handbook, and the author’s unique flair of bringing in different perspectives, Bruce examines why and how the West became the world’s most powerful civilization. Drawing on his years of teaching political science at NYU, and copious research, Bruce discusses how a rarely examined historical 12th century event, the Concordat of Worms, changed the course of history.

Bringing it to today, our discussion will consider how competition between church and state have led to stronger, more stable countries than where that has not been the case. In addition to his teaching responsibilities, Bruce is a founder of Mesquita & Roundell, a consultancy that makes political and foreign policy forecasts based on game theory.

Complimentary Registration:

RSVP Here

Schedule

Tuesday, February 1, 2022

6 pm MST | 8 pm EST

Venue

Zoom Meeting

The link for this webinar will be included in your registration confirmation email.

Speaker

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Author

Silver Professor; Professor of Politics, New York University

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has been a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution since 1986, and a professor at New York University. He earned his B.A. from Queens College, and his M.A. and Ph.D from the University of Michigan. He serves as director for New York University’s Alexander Hamilton Center for Political Economy.

He is best known as one of the authors of selectorate theory. Selectorate theory, as described in his 2012 The Dictator’s Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics (cowritten with Alastair Smith), seeks to explain the five rules that dictators must follow to remain in power, including the cultivation of a small winning coalition so as to keep their needs simple, keep replacements to step up when supporters depart, control the money, give lots of money to your friends but not so much that they can overthrow you, and never give your friends’ money to the people.

He has been a Guggenheim Fellow and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and president of the International Studies Association. He has been awarded the Dag Hammarskjold Memorial Award and a Karl Deutsch Award in International Relations and Peace Research.

About the Book

In the tradition of Why Nations Fail, this book solves one of the great puzzles of history: Why did the West become the most powerful civilization in the world?

Western exceptionalism—the idea that European civilizations are freer, wealthier, and less violent—is a widespread and powerful political idea. It has been a source of peace and prosperity in some societies, and of ethnic cleansing and havoc in others.

Yet in The Invention of Power, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita draws on his expertise in political maneuvering, deal-making, and game theory to present a revolutionary new theory of Western exceptionalism: that a single, rarely discussed event in the twelfth century changed the course of European and world history. By creating a compromise between churches and nation-states that, in effect, traded money for power and power for money, the 1122 Concordat of Worms incentivized economic growth, facilitated secularization, and improved the lot of the citizenry, all of which set European countries on a course for prosperity. In the centuries since, countries that have had a similar dynamic of competition between church and state have been consistently better off than those that have not.

The Invention of Power upends conventional thinking about European culture, religion, and race and presents a persuasive new vision of world history.

An evening with the Ambassador of Brazil to the U.S., 

Ambassador Nestor Forster Jr.

The Phoenix Committee on Foreign Relations would like to welcome you to join us for a special evening with Ambassador Nestor Forster Jr. of Brazil. Brazil is the largest economy in South America and one of the largest in the world. Ambassador Forster Jr. will share his insights on U.S./Brazil relations and how we can strengthen as economic partners. The discussion will be moderated by Glen Goodman, Clinical Assistant Professor of Brazilian Studies at Arizona State University.

Wednesday, February 9, 2022

6:00 pm Reception  |   7:00 pm Dinner & Program

You will receive the venue address upon registration.

Complimentary valet will be provided.

Dinner program is by invitation only.

This event is only open to PCFR annual sponsors and program sponsors.

For sponsorship information please, reach out to tina@pcfraz.org.

~

About Ambassador Nestor Forster Jr.

Born in Porto Alegre, Brazil, in 1963, Ambassador Forster graduated from the Brazilian Diplomatic Academy (Instituto Rio Branco) in 1986. As a diplomat, he served in Canada, Costa Rica, and the United States, where he was posted three times to the Embassy in Washington, as well as to the Brazilian consulates in Hartford (CT) and New York (NY). His diplomatic experience covers areas such as trade negotiations, intellectual property, financial policy, political affairs, international law, consular affairs, administration, and information technology.

After starting his career in consular affairs, Forster was posted twice to the Office of the President of Brazil (1990-92 and 2002), having also served as chief of staff at the Office of the Attorney General. Most recently, he headed the Foreign Ministry’s Information Technology Division. Ambassador Forster has led numerous Brazilian delegations to regional and multilateral meetings.

In 2006, Nestor Forster successfully concluded his high studies dissertation on “Development Finance” at the Rio Branco diplomatic academy. He also co- authored the Official Style Guide of Brazil’s federal administration, in use for almost 30 years, and participated in the first institutionalized Brazilian presidential transition team in 2002, which resulted in the book “Transition and Democracy: institutionalizing the transferring of power.” He has also appeared as guest speaker at Columbia University, Toronto University, University of Alberta, Université Laval à Montreal, and Instituto Rio Branco.

Ambassador Forster was the Chargé d’affaires of the Embassy of Brazil in Washington from June 2019 to October 2020. He is the Ambassador of Brazil to the United States of America since October 2020.

Nestor Forster is married to Maria Theresa Diniz Forster. They have two daughters and two grandchildren.

~

Moderator

Glen Goodman

Glen Goodman is a Clinical Assistant Professor of Brazilian Studies at Arizona State University and leads Latin America initiatives for ASU's office of International Development. He is a three-time Fulbright scholar to Brazil and a former visiting professor at both the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul and the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul. His historical research focuses on the relationship between migration and ethnic identities in Brazil, with a particular focus on the hundreds of thousands of German-speaking migrants who came to Brazil beginning in the early 19th century and their millions of descendants who form an important part of Brazil's vibrantly diverse culture to this day. At ASU he teaches a broad range of courses on Brazilian history and culture, as well as Portuguese language. He holds a PhD in Brazilian History from Emory University as well as degrees from Oxford and Georgetown Universities.

Great Power Competition Series

The Phoenix Committee on Foreign Relations, McCain Institute at ASU and ASU Sandra Day O’Connor College of Law present a series of renowned speakers on Great Power Competition.

The U.S. security strategy has focused on the global war on terrorism since the attacks of September 11, 2001 and while terrorism still exists, the past two administrations have identified Great Power Competition as the political construct guiding U.S. foreign policy. The decline of U.S. global influence, competition from a rising China and a revanchist Russia is the new principle threat of Great Power Competition.

While the Cold War showcased the ideological battle between democracy and communism, the dissolution of the Soviet Union put an end to the threat of communism. However, democracy is under increased threat and China with its state controlled economy and Beijing and Moscow’s increasingly heavy-handed authoritarian systems is challenging democracy. In 2017, then Defense Secretary James Mattis proclaimed that “great-power competition—not terrorism—is now the primary focus of U.S. national security.”

Join us for our first series speaker:

Secretary Mark T. Esper 

Former Secretary of Defense and the Army

Join us as Secretary Mark Esper discusses Great Power Competition and the U.S role and balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, China and Taiwan, and the state of global power politics.

Masks will be required during the program except when drinking. There will not be food or beverage service at this program. Bottled water will be provided.

This is a free program and open to the general public.

REGISTER HERE

Registration

Complimentary Registration

Schedule

Tuesday, February 15, 2022

6 pm MST

Venue

ASU Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law

111 E Taylor St

Phoenix, AZ 85004 (map)

Speaker

Dr. Mark T. Esper

Former Secretary of Defense

Dr. Mark T. Esper became the 27th Secretary of Defense in July 2019 when he was confirmed in an overwhelming 90-8 vote by the U.S. Senate in rare bipartisan fashion. Esper went on to successfully lead the department through an unprecedented time in the nation’s history: from conflict with Iran, an ongoing military campaign in Afghanistan, and counter-terrorist operations in the Middle East; to open competition with China and Russia amidst a fundamental shift in geo-strategic environment; and from the greatest civil unrest and political turmoil America has seen in decades, to the spread of a global pandemic the world had not experienced in over 100 years, all while dealing with a chaotic and unpredictable White House.

As Defense Secretary, Esper was responsible for ensuring the United States’ national security, protecting the American people at home and abroad, and advancing the country’s interests globally. In this capacity, he led the largest and most complex organization in the world given its nearly 3 million service members and defense civilians, $740 billion annual budget, and trillions of dollars of weapons, equipment, and infrastructure located at 4,800 sites in over 160 countries.

Dr. Esper made major strides in shaping and implementing the National Defense Strategy, which called for a return to preparing for high intensity conflict in a new era of great power competition. Esper established the Space Force and Space Command, proposed a dramatic change in the size and composition of the U.S. Navy, enhanced the resourcing and operations of Cyber Command, and led a major reform effort that reorganized the department and freed up billions of dollars for higher priorities. He worked hard to strengthen alliances and grow new partners, especially in the Indo-Pacific, and helped drive a major increase in the readiness of NATO members, all while advancing new warfighting, operational, and readiness concepts in the U.S. military.

Prior to becoming Defense Secretary, Dr. Esper served as the 23d Secretary of the Army from November 2017 until June 2019. Dr. Esper graduated from West Point with distinction in 1986 and received his commission in the Infantry. During 10 years on active duty, he served in the 101st Airborne Division and participated in the Gulf War with the “Screaming Eagles,” and later commanded an airborne rifle company in Europe in what is now the 173d Airborne Brigade. He then served another 11 years in the National Guard and Army Reserve. From 1996 to 1998, Dr. Esper was chief of staff at The Heritage Foundation think tank, and later served in senior staff positions for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Senate Government Affairs Committee, and House Armed Services Committee. Esper was Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Negotiations Policy from 2002 to 2004 and National Security Advisor for Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist from 2004 to 2006.

Esper holds a Bachelor of Science degree from the United States Military Academy, a Master of Public Administration degree from the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, and a doctorate in Public Policy from George Washington University.

Program Description

PCFR and Global Ties Arizona have partnered again this year to bring Great Decisions. PCFR members loved participating in Foreign Policy Association’s Great Decisions series in 2020 and 2021. Here is what PCFR member Charles Blum had to say about the program: “Great Decisions and PCFR are a perfect match. This program provides an ideal platform for informed discussion, deeper insights into current issues and greater appreciation for the insights and experiences of our members.”

Over 9 months, PCFR members will have the opportunity to dive deep on 9 of the most critical issues facing the U.S. foreign policy each year. Prior to each session, participants will read a chapter from the Great Decisions Briefing Book and watch the video associated with the topic. Each session will feature a subject-matter expert and you will have the opportunity to participate in the group discussions. PCFR member Charles Blum will moderate the series.

PCFR and Global Ties Arizona are covering the cost of the Great Decisions Briefing Book (a $35 value) for PCFR members. Be sure to save your spot. 

Sign up fast, Great Decisions is limited to 25 members!

How to Participate

1. Fill out the form to register to participate and receive your complimentary Great Decisions Briefing Book
2. You will receive a link to watch the program videos
3. Participate in the discussion!

Schedule 

All sessions will take place from 12 pm - 1 pm Phoenix, Arizona time, online via Zoom.

February 22, 2022 | Biden's Agenda

March 22, 2022 | QUAD Alliance

April 19, 2022 | Drug Policy in Latin America

May 17, 2022 | Industrial Policy

June 21, 2022 | Outer Space

September 20, 2022 | Myanmar and ASEAN

October 18, 2022 | Changing Demographics

November 15, 2022 | Climate Change

December 13, 2022 | Russia and the U.S.

VIEW FULL TOPIC DESCRIPTIONS HERE

Moderator

Charles Blum has spent a lifetime in international affairs. Before launching an independent consultancy in 1988, he served in the US State Department and the Executive Office of the President for 17 years. He has worked on commercial, investment and policy matters on six continents and participates in a broad range of discussions on foreign and domestic policy. A native of New York, he now resides in Sedona, AZ.

Book for Discussion

The Age of AI: And Our Human Future

by Henry A Kissinger, Eric Schmidt &

Daniel Huttenlocher

Thursday, February 24, 2022

7:30 - 9:00 am MST

Venue

Online Zoom Meeting

About the Book

Three of the world’s most accomplished and deep thinkers come together to explore Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the way it is transforming human society—and what this technology means for us all.

An AI learned to win chess by making moves human grand masters had never conceived. Another AI discovered a new antibiotic by analyzing molecular properties human scientists did not understand. Now, AI-powered jets are defeating experienced human pilots in simulated dogfights. AI is coming online in searching, streaming, medicine, education, and many other fields and, in so doing, transforming how humans are experiencing reality.

In The Age of AI, three leading thinkers have come together to consider how AI will change our relationships with knowledge, politics, and the societies in which we live. The Age of AI is an essential roadmap to our present and our future, an era unlike any that has come before.

Save the Dates

View Upcoming Reading Group Meetings Here

Then & Now: The Underground Railroad with Col. Steve Miska

In 2007, Iraq was in the midst of violent sectarian cleansing. Col. Steve Miska led a team within the 2nd Brigade, 1st Infantry Division (known as Dagger Brigade) that established an underground railroad from Baghdad to Amman to the U.S. for dozens of Iraqi interpreters facing near-certain death at the hands of the “death squads” that hunted down and slaughtered interpreters and their families. Learn how his experience detailed in Baghdad Underground Railroad led to his advocacy and continuing efforts for Afghans following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan this summer.

Col. Steve Miska will sign copies of his book, Baghdad Underground Railroad, at the event. Proceeds from the book, available on Amazon, support a veteran nonprofit, U.S. Veteran Artists Alliance. Books will also be available for purchase at the event. 

Program cost includes dinner and beverage service during reception.

Registration

$75 for PCFR Members

$100 for Non-members

Register Here

Book for Discussion

Baghdad Underground Railroad

by Colonel Steve Miska

Friday, March 25, 2022

7:30 - 9:00 am Arizona time

Venue

Online Zoom Meeting

About the Book

During the war’s worst fighting in 2006 and 2007, a handful of Iraqi interpreters put their lives on the line to help American troops. Families threatened, a bounty on their heads, ignored by the powers that be, they faced execution as collaborators with the enemy if they remained in their homeland. A Task Force Commander decides a promise made should be a promise kept.

After the murders of several Iraqi allies, Lt. Col Steve Miska decides to slice through the bureaucratic red tape to get interpreters to safety. His team creates the Baghdad Underground Railroad to get the “terps” and other allies out of the country to Jordan for their Embassy interviews. Soldiers also tap their own families in the United States to serve as sponsors to house and assist the new immigrants.

For the Iraqis, they face the struggle of adapting to a culture vastly different from their own. One of them even joins the U.S. Army and returns to Iraq as an American soldier.

In this compelling memoir that illustrates humanity and compassion in the midst of war, Steve Miska highlights the plight of local allies, who are essential to the American cause in foreign wars but are often left behind. He also offers an insider’s look at the complex and frustrating political reality of Iraq facing U.S. commanders and policymakers following the downfall of Saddam Hussein.

RSVP HERE

__________________________

Sign up to hear from the author at the PCFR Author Series event on March 10th:

Then & Now: The Underground Railroad with Col. Steve Miska

LEARN MORE

Save the Dates

View Upcoming Reading Group Meetings Here

Book for Discussion

There is Nothing for You Here: 

Finding Opportunity in the Twenty-First Century

by Fiona Hill

Friday, April 22, 2022

7:30 - 9:00 am Arizona time

Venue

Online Zoom Meeting

About the Book

“Of every book written by anybody associated with the Trump administration, in any way, [this] is absolutely the one to read.” —Rachel Maddow

INSTANT NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER | A celebrated foreign policy expert and key impeachment witness reveals how declining opportunity has set America on the grim path of modern Russia—and draws on her personal journey out of poverty, as well as her unique perspectives as an historian and policy maker, to show how we can return hope to our forgotten places.

"As a memoir this is hard to put down; if you are seeking a better American future you should pick it up.” —Timothy Snyder, New York Times best-selling author of On Tyranny

Fiona Hill grew up in a world of terminal decay. The last of the local mines had closed, businesses were shuttering, and despair was etched in the faces around her. Her father urged her to get out of their blighted corner of northern England: “There is nothing for you here, pet,” he said.

The coal-miner’s daughter managed to go further than he ever could have dreamed. She studied in Moscow and at Harvard, became an American citizen, and served three U.S. Presidents. But in the heartlands of both Russia and the United States, she saw troubling reflections of her hometown and similar populist impulses. By the time she offered her brave testimony in the first impeachment inquiry of President Trump, Hill knew that the desperation of forgotten people was driving American politics over the brink—and that we were running out of time to save ourselves from Russia’s fate. In this powerful, deeply personal account, she shares what she has learned, and shows why expanding opportunity is the only long-term hope for our democracy.

>> Keep an eye out for our upcoming program with Fiona Hill!

Save the Dates

View Upcoming Reading Group Meetings Here

Book for Discussion

Lessons from the Edge: A Memoir

by Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch

Friday, May 27, 2022

7:30 - 9:00 am Arizona time

Venue

Online Zoom Meeting

About the Book

“'Lessons From the Edge' is a brilliant, engaging, and inspiring memoir from one of America’s wisest and most courageous diplomats—essential reading for current policymakers, aspiring public servants, and anyone who cares about America’s role in the world.” —Madeleine K. Albright

An inspiring and urgent memoir by the ambassador who electrified the nation by speaking truth to power. By the time she became US Ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch had seen her share of corruption, instability, and tragedy in developing countries. But it came as a shock when, in early 2019, she was recalled from her post after a smear campaign by President Trump’s personal attorney and his associates—men operating outside of normal governmental channels, and apparently motivated by personal gain. Her courageous participation in the subsequent impeachment inquiry earned Yovanovitch the nation’s respect, and her dignified response to the president’s attacks won our hearts. She has reclaimed her own narrative, first with her lauded congressional testimony, and now with this memoir.

A child of parents who survived Soviet and Nazi terror, Yovanovitch’s life and work have taught her the preciousness of democracy as well as the dangers of corruption. Lessons from the Edge follows the arc of her career as she develops into the person we came to know during the impeachment proceedings.

>> Keep an eye out for our upcoming program with Amb. Marie Yovanovitch!

Save the Dates

View Upcoming Reading Group Meetings Here