Topical Discussion

Australia’s Burning Bush,

Earth’s Emerging Pyrocene?

Schedule

Tuesday, February 25, 2020 | 11:30 am-1:15 pm

Lunch & Networking: 11:30 am-12:00 pm
Program: 12:00-1:15 pm

Venue

Snell & Wilmer

400 E. Van Buren St.

19th Floor, Board Room #1

Phoenix, AZ 85004

(map)

Parking

We recommend you park in the Arizona Center garage.

Parking will not be validated.

Registration

Member Registration: $20

Non-Member Registration: $25

Talking Points

1. Australia can be thought of as a fire continent much as Antarctica is an ice continent. The range of adaptations to fire is extraordinary and long precede human contact.
2. Humans have occupied Australia for 45,000-65,000 years and have used fire extensively. An anthropologist famously described the fire habits of Aborigines as ‘firestick farming.’
3. European contact disrupted the existing regimes by removing the indigenes, introducing new flora and fauna (some domesticated, many feral), but kept a new version of the firestick habit. A major cultural divide emerged between elites, who condemn fire, and those who live on the ground, who use it. In European thinking fire is a stigma of primitivism. This division is pronounced and still colors Australian discussions about how to live with fire.
4. Major conflagrations affect the southeast especially, what has been termed a fire flume. These have become more frequent and damaging in the past couple of decades.
5. After WWII Australian foresters reconstituted forest and bush management on the basis of routine burning – what might aptly be termed the Australian system. In the US foresters stood for fire suppression, environmentalists for fire restoration. In Australia the positions were reversed, and the controversies continue. The reincarnating firestick makes a useful index for tracing the arguments, which today have reorganized around the impact of climate change.
6. Climate change acts as a performance enhancer, so places already disposed to burn like Australia (or California) feel the impacts first. But climate change is becoming a subset of fire history since it’s humanity’s combustion habits that are underwriting global warming. One way to conceptualize the full range of consequences is the notion of a Pyrocene, that we are creating the fire-informed equivalent of an ice age. Australia seems to be going from recurring fire crises to the leading edge of a fire epoch.
7. Basically, we have too much bad fire, too little good, and too much combustion overall.

About Stephen Pyne

Stephen Pyne, PhD is an emeritus professor at Arizona State University and an urban farmer (sheep, chickens, citrus). Dr. Pyne has written over 30 books, mostly on the history and management of fire, with big-screen fire histories for America, Australia, Canada, Europe (including Russia), the Earth, and shorter surveys for other countries. He has also written on the history of exploration, Antarctica, Grand Canyon, and the Voyager mission. Dr. Pyne spent 15 seasons with the North Rim Longshots, a fire crew at Grand Canyon National Park. At present, he is writing a book on the Pyrocene and a fire history of Mexico.

PCFR Members are invited to join us for a family-friendly field trip to the Commemorative Air Force Airbase Arizona Museum in Mesa on Saturday, February 29. The guided tour will take us on an edu-venture through history and learn how aircraft evolved as a vital partner to ground and sea operations from WWI to present. The tour will begin at 10 am and will be followed by an outdoor brunch at Board & Batten restaurant at noon. Appetizers are complimentary of PCFR. We look forward to having you join us for this unique event. Fee for the museum is $10 for adults and $5 for kids 5-12. Deadline to register for this event is February 23.

Details:

February 29, 2020

Tour begins at 10 am

Brunch is at 12 pm at

Board & Batten

4012 E Palm St, Mesa, AZ 85215

Appetizers are complimentary of PCFR.

Entrance fee for museum is $10 for adults and $5 for kids ages 5-12.

Dinner Event

The Challenges for U.S. Policy in a Turbulent Middle East

Schedule

Wednesday, March 4, 2020 | 6:00-8:30 pm

Cocktail Reception: 6:00-6:45 pm
Dinner: 6:45-7:30 pm
Program: 7:30-8:30 pm

Venue

Gainey Ranch Golf Club

7600 E Gainey Club Dr

Scottsdale, AZ 85258

Registration

Early-Bird Rate through March 1
Standard Registration: $55
Standard Registration (Non-Member): $70

After March 1

Standard Registration: $65

Standard Registration (Non-Member): $80
Table (up to 8 attendees): $600

About Paul Salem

Paul Salem is President at The Middle East Institute. He focuses on issues of political change, transition, and conflict as well as the regional and international relations of the Middle East. He has a particular emphasis on the countries of the Levant and Egypt. Salem writes regularly in the Arab and Western press and has been published in numerous journals and newspapers. Salem is the author and editor of a number of books and reports including From Chaos to Cooperation: Toward Regional Order in the Middle East (ed. with Ross Harrison, 2017), Broken Orders: The Causes and Consequences of the Arab Uprisings (In Arabic, 2013), “The Recurring Rise and Fall of Political Islam” (CSIS, 2015), “The Middle East in 2015 and Beyond: Trends and Drivers” (MEI 2014), Bitter Legacy: Ideology and Politics in the Arab World (1994), and Conflict Resolution in the Arab World (ed., 1997). Prior to joining MEI, Salem was the founding director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, Lebanon between 2006 and 2013. From 1999 to 2006, he was director of the Fares Foundation and in 1989-1999 founded and directed the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, Lebanon's leading public policy think tank.

15th Annual International State of the State Join us Wednesday, March 11, 2020 for Governor Doug Ducey's 2020 International State of the State Address. When Wednesday, March 11, 2020 11:30 am - 1:30 pm Registration begins: 11:30 am Lunch begins: 12:00 pm Program begins: 12:30 pm Program ends: 1:30 pm Venue Hyatt Regency Phoenix 122 N 2nd St Phoenix, AZ 85004 Registration General Public: $80 Members: $65 View Sponsorship Opportunities ~ About Governor Doug Ducey: Elected in 2014, and re-elected in 2018, Governor Ducey has applied his experience from a successful career in business to bring much-needed change to Arizona government. Upon taking office, the governor inherited a $1 billion budget deficit. He quickly took action and balanced the budget in his first year — without raising taxes. Today, the state budget is balanced with a one billion dollar surplus and a record one billion dollars in its Rainy Day Fund. Business is thriving and more people are moving to Arizona than almost anywhere in the country. Committed to investing in public education, Governor Ducey led an historic and bipartisan effort to invest $3.5 billion into K-12 schools in his first year, injecting more dollars into Arizona’s classrooms. With a focus on teacher pay, the governor also successfully championed the passage of legislation to increase teacher pay 20 percent by 2020. Governor Ducey has cut regulations and simplified taxes every year to stimulate job creation and economic growth. He remains committed to making Arizona a land of “Opportunity for All” and has pledged to work every day to make that vision a reality. Governor Ducey was born in Toledo, Ohio. He moved to Arizona in 1982 to attend Arizona State University, where he graduated with a Bachelor of Science in Finance. He and his wife, Angela, live in Paradise Valley with their three sons, Jack, Joe and Sam. He is Arizona’s 23rd governor. ~ Audio-Visual Sponsor

March Reading Group

The Tyranny of Experts:

The Forgotten Rights of the Poor

Schedule

Thursday, March 19, 2020 | 7:30-9:00 am

Venue

7729 E Greenway Road, Suite 300
Scottsdale, AZ 85260
(one block south of Greenway Hayden off 73rd St)

Please park only in the parking spaces marked ‘visitors’, not the numbered parking spaces. If the spaces are full, you may park on the street.

Topic of Discussion

William Easterly’s The Tyranny of Experts: The Forgotten Rights of the Poor, 2013 

What can be more interesting than a foreign aid shoot out between a well respected Professor of Development Economics at NYU, William Easterly and a well respected entrepreneur philanthropist Bill Gates? No one would deny that Mr. Gates is not serious about his recommendations for aiding developing countries since as a co-chair of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation he and his wife have reportedly committed $10 billion over the last 20 years to help fund Gavi ( The Vaccine Alliance), the Global Fund and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.

Using the well known trade off of giving the needy fish or giving the needy fishing poles, Professor Easterly sides directly with the fishing pole approach. He claims that while the World Bank, where he worked, promised to make loans based on market-oriented reforms, “They were just giving the loans away, to really bad governments”. According to Adam O’Neal of the New York Times quotes Easterly, “Counties respond to incentives to grow, and organizations like the World Bank and IMF don’t design aid programs around incentives…instead, they offer magic-bullet solutions like population control”. On page ix of his book, Easterly says“ The book describes how the development community too often winds up on the side of the autocrats---often unintentionally and often contrary to the private sympathies of development experts and officials of freedom”.

Easterly faults the development community for favoring “benevolent dictators” and calls the United Nations “a very ineffective club of dictators”. Bill Gates has constantly sparred with Easterly at the Davos convention and in the New York Times. The differing views of Easterly and Gates are discussed in the book. O’Neal says that Easterly is opposed to Gates ’technical expert-driven solutions’ and his support of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals.

Despite Easterly’s criticism of private and public current foreign aid policy, he optimistically believes the future is bright for the developing counties with the correct foreign aid assistance. Unlike other pessimists today, Easterly rejects the economic growth ‘stagnation theories’ and, instead, envisions constant progress for the future.

The book is introduced with positive credits by such well known academics as Angus Deaton of Princeton, Paul Romer of NYU, Francis Fukuyama of Stanford Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia and Tyler Cowen O George Mason.

Please join us for a lively debate on how best aid the needy in developing countries, and while we are at it, does our recommendations equally apply to the needy in the United States?

Dinner Event

An Evening with Ichiro Fujisaki,

Former Ambassador of Japan to the U.S.

Schedule

Wednesday, April 1, 2020 | 6:00-8:30 pm

Cocktail Reception: 6:00-6:45 pm
Dinner: 6:45-7:30 pm
Program: 7:30-8:30 pm

Venue

Gainey Ranch Golf Club

7600 E Gainey Club Dr

Scottsdale, AZ 85258

Registration

Early-Bird Rate through March 28
Standard Registration: $55
Standard Registration (Non-Member): $70

After March 28

Standard Registration: $65

Standard Registration (Non-Member): $80
Table (up to 8 attendees): $600

About Ichiro Fujisaki

Ichiro Fujisaki joined the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1969, and went on to serve as Deputy Director General for Asian Affairs, Political Minister at the Embassy of Japan in Washington, DC, Director General for North American Affairs, Deputy Foreign Minister, and Ambassador to the UN and WTO in Geneva. He served as Ambassador to the United States in 2008 until 2012. He is currently distinguished professor and Chairman for International Strategies of Sophia University. He also is the president of the America-Japan Society, Inc.

Lunch Event

US Security Interests in the Middle East

Schedule

Thursday, April 9, 2020 | 11:00 am-1:15 pm

Registration: 11:00 am

Lunch & Networking: 11:30 am-12:00 pm
Program: 12:00-1:15 pm

Venue

Registration

Member Registration: $45

Non-Member Registration: $55

About the Event

Key talking points will include:

• The US retains important security interests in the Middle East, the Levant and Central and South Asia.
• Our partners across he region want to be aligned with the US and its western allies. 
• Our strategic approach to this region should be focused on retaining an overall favorable balance of power. 
• This area is and will continue to be an area of “Great Power Competition” with China, Russia, Iran and Turkey.
• Our interests in this region will not be preserved by military means alone — but will require all elements of National Power to succeed.

About General Joseph L. Votel

General Joseph L. Votel is a retired U.S. Army Four-Star officer and most recently the Commander of the U.S. Central Command – responsible for U.S. and coalition military operations in the Middle East, Levant and Central and South Asia. During his 39 years in the military he commanded special operations and conventional military forces at every level. His career included combat in Panama, Afghanistan and Iraq. Notably he led a 79-member coalition that successfully liberated Iraq and Syria from the Islamic State Caliphate. He preceded his assignment at CENTCOM with service as the Commander of U.S. Special Operations Command and the Joint Special Operations Command.

Votel was recognized with the Distinguished Military Leadership Award from the Atlantic Council; the U.S. – Arab Defense Leadership Award from the National Council on U.S. - Arab Relations; the Patriot Award from the National Medal of Honor Society; the SGT James T. Regan Lifetime Achievement Award from the “Lead the Way” Foundation; and the Freedom Award from the Intrepid Sea, Air and Space Museum.

In January of 2020 Votel became the President / CEO of Business Executives for National Security. He is a Strategic Advisor for Sierra Nevada Corporation as well as a member of the Board of Trustees for Noblis Corporation. Votel is a non-resident Distinguished Fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C. and the Belfer Center at the John F. Kennedy School of Government in Cambridge, MA; and an advisor to the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, NY. He is a member of the Board of Directors for Service to School – a non-profit organization that helps military veterans transition and win admission to the Nation’s best graduate and undergraduate schools as well as an Advisor to the Texas Transition Network that focuses on post-secondary education opportunities for disabled students. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Votel is a 1980 graduate of the United States Military Academy and earned Master’s Degrees from the U.S. Army Command and Staff College and the Army War College. He is married to Michele and they have two grown sons; a daughter-in-law and two grandchildren. The Votels reside in Lake Elmo, Minnesota.

Topical Discussion

Economic Update:

From a Chief Economist Point of View

with Carl R. Tannenbaum

Executive Vice President and Chief Economist

Northern Trust

Schedule

Tuesday, April 21, 2020 | 8:00 am - 9:30 am

Breakfast & Networking: 8:00 am - 8:30 am

Program: 8:30 am - 9:30 am

Venue

Northern Trust

2398 E. Camelback Rd., Suite 1100

Phoenix, AZ 85016

Parking

View parking instructions here

Registration

Member Registration: $20

Non-Member Registration: $25

About Carl R. Tannenbaum

Carl Tannenbaum is the Chief Economist for Northern Trust. In this role, he briefs clients and colleagues on the economy and business conditions, prepares the bank's official economic outlook and participates in forecast surveys. He is a member of Northern Trust's investment policy committee, its capital committee, and its asset/liability management committee. Carl publishes weekly commentaries and is frequently interviewed by media outlets including The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, the New York Times and Reuters. Prior to joining Northern Trust, Carl spent four years leading the Federal Reserve's risk section. He was deeply involved in the central bank's response to the 2008 financial crisis, helped to create and conduct its stress testing program, and advised senior Federal Reserve leaders on developments in banking and the financial markets. Carl began his career in banking at LaSalle Bank/ABN AMRO, a global banking organization with $1 trillion in total assets. He served for more than 20 years as the organization's chief economist and head of balance sheet management. Carl is a member and past chairman of the American Bankers Association Economic Advisory Committee, the National Association for Business Economics, the Conference of Business Economists and the North American Asset/Liability Management Association. Carl also serves on the board of Working in the Schools (WITS), a literacy organization that supports the Chicago public school system. Carl holds an M.B.A. and a B.A. in finance and economics from the University of Chicago.